March 18, 2026

The big picture: The Fed kept rates on hold for a second consecutive meeting — with the federal funds rate in a range between 3.5% and 3.75% — after three cuts late last year.

The Federal Reserve paused interest rate hikes for the second meeting in a row, holding the federal funds rate between 3.5% and 3.75%, while signaling at least one rate cut could come this year amid rising uncertainty from the Iran war and its inflationary impact on oil prices. Division remains within the Fed, with seven officials anticipating stable rates through 2026 and an equal number expecting a cut, reflecting cautious optimism as labor market momentum fades. The Fed highlighted economic uncertainty stemming from the Middle East conflict and adjusted its outlook on unemployment, dropping language about stabilization in favor of noting the jobless rate has remained largely unchanged recently.

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